The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced its optimistic projection for renewable fuel production, expecting it to reach a capacity of at least 69 billion liters (55 million tonnes) by 2028. This growth in output is being driven by the establishment of new renewable fuel refineries and the expansion of existing facilities. The anticipated production covers a wide geographic footprint, spanning North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region.

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) will constitute a significant portion of this increasing output. To achieve the projected 2028 production levels, IATA emphasizes the need for governments to implement production incentives that support the aviation industry's transition to sustainable energy sources. Additionally, approvals for diversifying methods and feedstocks for SAF production are crucial to meeting the goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. IATA's Director General, Willie Walsh, highlights the importance of SAF, which is expected to contribute about 62 percent of the necessary carbon mitigation by 2050.

Encouraging trends in support of this optimistic outlook are already visible. In 2022, SAF production tripled to approximately 300 million liters (240,000 tonnes), and the number of project announcements for potential SAF producers is rapidly growing. Over 130 relevant renewable fuel projects have been announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries. These projects have either expressed intent or commitment to produce SAF alongside other renewable fuels. The timeline for commercialization usually involves a 3 to 5-year lag from the project announcement date, indicating that further renewable fuel capacity announcements could be expected until 2030.

If the estimated 69 billion liters of renewable energy production is achieved by 2028, the trajectory towards reaching 100 billion liters (80 million tonnes) by 2030 appears promising. Even if only 30 percent of this production is dedicated to SAF, the industry could still achieve 30 billion liters (24 million tonnes) of SAF production by 2030.

IATA emphasizes that achieving the necessary SAF percentage output from new and expanding facilities will require concerted efforts. Governments worldwide have agreed on a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). As such, governments share responsibility for aviation's decarbonization, necessitating the establishment of a policy framework to ensure the aviation industry receives the required share of renewable energy production in SAF.