World Bank Forecasts 3.7% Economic Growth for Nigeria in 2025

The World Bank has forecasted a 3.7% expansion in Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the year 2025.
The World Bank
The World BankGoogle

This outlook is presented in the institution's most recent publication, titled "Global Economic Prospect: Subdued Growth, Multiple Challenges." The report anticipates a positive trajectory for the largest economy in Africa, with a projected growth rate of 3.3% for the current year, an improvement from the initially estimated 2.9% for 2023.

The report highlighted, "Growth in Nigeria is projected at 3.3% this year and 3.7% in 2025—up 0.3 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, since June—as macro-fiscal reforms gradually bear fruit. The baseline forecast implies that per capita income will reach its pre-pandemic level only in 2025."

Attributing this momentum to the ongoing macro-fiscal reforms, the World Bank credited the positive trend to the steady implementation of reforms since President Bola Tinubu assumed office. Notable reforms include the elimination of fuel subsidies and the harmonization of the foreign exchange rate, all while emphasizing infrastructure development, manufacturing, and technology.

The multilateral institution specified that the country's economic growth will be fueled by sectors such as agriculture, construction, services, and trade.

Despite the positive economic outlook, the World Bank's report also drew attention to the challenges faced by the Nigerian population.

According to the 2023 State of Global Food and Nutrition Security, the prevalence of food insecurity in Nigeria has surged by 133% over the past three years. The number of individuals experiencing food insecurity rose from 63.8 million between 2014 and 2016 to a staggering 148.7 million between 2020 and 2022.

“Inflation should gradually ease as the effects of last year’s exchange rate reforms and removal of fuel subsidies fade. These structural reforms are expected to boost fiscal revenue over the forecast period,” the World Bank declared.

It acknowledged that the Nigerian economy softened to an estimated 2.9 per cent in 2023 due to the disruptive currency demonetisation policy, which involved replacing old high-denomination naira notes.

“Growth in the region’s three largest economies—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—slowed to an average of 1.8 percent last year, holding back the region’s overall growth.

“In the region’s other countries, growth softened to 3.9 per cent, partly reflecting a sharp decline in metal exporters’ growth alongside lower global metal prices. Moreover, intense and prolonged conflicts hampered growth in several countries

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