The multinational consulting firm, in a newly released report tagged ‘KPMG Global Economy Outlook report, H1 2023,’ said unemployment will continue to be a challenge due to the slower-than-required economic growth and the inability of the economy to absorb the 4-5 million new entrants into the Nigerian job market every year.
“Unemployment is expected to continue to be a major challenge in 2023 due to the limited investment by the private sector, low industrialisation and slower than required economic growth and consequently the inability of the economy to absorb the 4-5 million new entrants into the Nigerian job market every year.
Although the National Bureau of Statistics recorded an increase in the national unemployment rate from 23.1per cent in 2018 to 33.3per cent in 2020. We estimate that this rate has increased to 37.7per cent in 2022 and will rise further to 40.6 per cent in 2023.”
The report also said that in 2024, the unemployment rate will grow to 43 per cent while inflation will accelerate to 20.3 per cent in 2023 and 20.0 per cent in 2024.
KPMG noted that the incoming administration will face a deeply rooted challenging environment, in which fragile and slow economic growth is coupled with challenges in the foreign exchange market.
“Additionally, government revenue remains inadequate to support much-needed expenditure, leading to a high debt stock and high debt service payments. The Nigerian economy ended the past year with a GDP growth rate of 3.52 per cent in Q4 2022, compared with 2.25 per cent in Q3 2022, with growth averaging 3.10 per cent over 2022,” it explained.
It projected that the telecommunications, trade services and oil sectors will recover from their current downturns in response to security measures taken by the government.
The report went on to say that the slowdown in trade and financial flows expected in 2023 as a result of slower economic growth globally would strain GDP.
The report warned that the Nigerian government's currency redesign plan of late 2022 and early 2023 would negatively affect economic growth.
According to KPMG, this could negatively impact key non-oil sectors like manufacturing, trade, accommodation and food services, slowing down overall GDP growth in 2023.
“Headline annual inflation maintained its upward trend throughout 2022, reaching its highest levels in almost two decades and closing the year at 21.34 per cent, with food inflation and core inflation growing by 23.75 per cent and 18.49 per cent, respectively.
This was driven by persistent structural issues, which impacted domestic food production and transportation such as insecurity, floods in key agricultural producing areas and rising international food and energy prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other policy-related bottlenecks, which continue to impact the cost of doing business.
