Nigeria has consistently failed to meet the crude oil production quotas set by OPEC in 2022, 2023, and the first five months of 2024, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This inability to meet production targets has exacerbated the crude oil supply crisis for indigenous refineries in the country, including the $20 billion Dangote Petroleum Refinery and various modular refineries.
In 2022, Nigeria's actual oil production figures fell short of OPEC's approved quotas every month, ranging from 1.024 million barrels per day (mbpd) in May to 1.398 mbpd in January. The situation persisted in 2023, with actual production remaining below the 1.742 mbpd quota set by OPEC for the entire year.
Despite OPEC reducing Nigeria's monthly quota to 1.5 mbpd from January to May 2024, the country still failed to meet the lower target, with actual production ranging from 1.230 mbpd in March to 1.426 mbpd in January.
Crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and force majeure at two key terminals have been cited as major factors hindering Nigeria's ability to meet its OPEC quotas and supply adequate crude oil to local refineries.
The NUPRC data shows that Nigeria's daily oil production dipped to 1.25 mbpd in May 2023, a 30,000 bpd decrease from April.
