The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a slowdown in Nigeria's economic growth for 2023 and 2024, primarily attributed to security challenges within the oil sector.
According to the IMF's latest 'World Economic Outlook Update: Near-Term Resilience, Persistent Challenges (July 2023)' report, Nigeria's economy is expected to grow at 3.2 per cent in 2023, decreasing further to 3.0 per cent in 2024.
These projections fall below the Sub-Saharan African region's average growth rate, which is anticipated to be 3.5 per cent in 2023 and 4.1 per cent in 2024.
The IMF said, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to decline to 3.5 per cent in 2023 before picking up to 4.1 per cent in 2024. Growth in Nigeria in 2023 and 2024 is projected to gradually decline, in line with April projections, reflecting security issues in the oil sector.
“In South Africa, growth is expected to decline to 0.3 per cent in 2023, with the decline reflecting power shortages, although the forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point since the April 2023 WEO, on account of resilience in services activity in the first quarter.”
In addition, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has affirmed that Nigeria's economic growth projection for 2023 and 2024 remains unchanged from its previous forecast in April 2023.
On a global scale, the IMF projects a decline in growth from an estimated 3.5 per cent in 2022 to 3.0 per cent in both 2023 and 2024. Although the 2023 forecast shows a slight improvement compared to its earlier prediction, the overall global economic growth is considered weak by historical standards.
The rise in Central Bank policy rates to combat inflation continues to impact economic activity, while concerns about sovereign debt distress are likely to affect a broader range of economies.
It added, “In most economies, the priority remains achieving sustained disinflation while ensuring financial stability. Therefore, central banks should remain focused on restoring price stability and strengthening financial supervision and risk monitoring.
